Increasing Cases and New Restrictions
Last week saw a continuation in the rise of cases reported in L.A. County—over 2,000 new cases every day of the week—as well as rising hospitalization rates. The County paused reporting over the holiday weekend to improve its data processing systems.
On Monday, June 29, the County ordered beaches closed for the Fourth of July weekend and canceled fireworks displays, in an effort to limit crowds and gatherings.
On Wednesday, July 1, Governor Gavin Newsom ordered indoor restaurants in Los Angeles and 18 other counties to close. The Governor’s Health Order, issued by the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), required the closure of indoor dining, wineries and tasting rooms, entertainment centers, movie theaters, zoos, museums, and card rooms in the affected counties. You can find more information here.
Also on June 29, L.A. County Director of Public Health Dr. Barbara Ferrer presented information about the County’s rising indicators, and noted that L.A. County appears to be facing a COVID‑19 surge. She said that new data show “alarming increases in cases, positivity rates and hospitalization.” The County reported its largest single-day total of new cases ever, at 2,903, as well as a total number of cases over 100,000 for the first time. The County also reported its highest daily number of hospitalizations, at 1,710. The number of hospitalizations has since been outpaced over the rest of the week.
The data that Dr. Ferrer presented showed three major indicators of significant community spread:
- Seven-day rolling average shows a “sharp increase” in new cases over the past two weeks.
- Seven-day average test rate shows an increase in positive tests.
- Three-day hospitalization trend is rising.
Dr. Ferrer stressed that a significant portion of these increases is due to businesses and individuals failing to comply with safety protocols. For instance:
- 49% of bars and 33% of restaurants do not adhere to physical distancing requirements.
- Staff of 54% of bars and 44% of restaurants do not wear facial coverings.
- There’s been a 14% decrease in compliance with stay-at-home orders.
- There’s been a 36% increase in in-person contact with individuals outside of households.
- On Saturday, June 20, there were 500,000 visits to “nightlife spots.”
L.A. County Department of Health Services Director Dr. Christina Ghaly also presented on the County’s model. She noted that while last week the model predicted 1 in 400 Angelinos was infected with COVID-19, the model now predicts that this number is 1 in 140. As of June 29, the County’s model shows an infection rate (R) of 1.26, and predicts an increase in transmissions and hospitalizations. Dr. Ghaly also noted that hospital bed capacity is still sufficient, but demand is increasing. She said there may be a strain on ICU bed capacity, and as of June 29, the County had approximately 200 available ICU beds.
L.A. County and L.A. City Budgets
On June 29, the L.A. County Board of Supervisors voted to approve the fiscal year 2020–21 budget, as presented by the County’s Chief Executive Officer. The budget reduces spending by 8% overall, largely due to reduced revenue caused by COVID-19. The budget makes cuts to public safety, with over 400 layoffs and $162 million in reductions to the Sheriff’s Department’s $3.3 billion budget, and includes an 8% across-the-board cut for all departments financed by “net county cost,” money obtained primarily from sales tax and other “locally generated revenue.” Across all county departments, the budget cuts will likely result in the elimination of 3,251 positions—2,596 current vacancies and 655 potential layoffs.
On July 1, the L.A. City Council voted to reduce the LAPD’s budget by $150 million. The council voted 12 to 2 to reduce LAPD staffing to 9,757 officers by next summer. According to the Los Angeles Times, this is “a level of staffing not seen in the city since 2008.”