Who Is Heading To The Polls?

By: Bruce Gyory
– City and State 

I am often asked why the likely voter polling data, especially in New York State, has been consistently off target on the margin of victory over the last decade and a half. My response is always the same: The polling data itself is not usually the problem, it is the likely voter screens that are often suspect, sometimes projecting very inaccurate spreads and margins.

A better way to predict electoral outcomes is to project the current year's turnout based upon recent trend lines, then re-weight the polling data to fit the truly "likely" electorate. When you do that, you will more often than not beat the accuracy of the public polls.




pursuant to New York DR 2-101(f)

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