Potential Supreme Court Ruling on Trump-Era Tariffs – What It Could Mean for Your Business

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a decision that could determine the legality of the Trump-era tariffs imposed on a wide range of imported goods. A ruling against the government could open the door for businesses to seek significant refunds on tariff payments—estimated between 150 and 200 billion dollars—and to reassess their global trade strategies moving forward.

This potential development represents one of the largest tax recovery opportunities in decades—but also one of the most complex.

What’s at Stake

If the tariffs are ruled unlawful, businesses that paid these duties may be entitled to refunds. However, pursuing such claims will likely involve navigating intricate tax recovery procedures, tight filing windows and substantial documentation requirements. At the same time, new policy and compliance obligations could emerge as the government considers alternative trade measures.

How Manatt Tax Can Help

Our interdisciplinary team combines deep experience in tax law, tax recovery procedures, international trade and complex litigation—allowing us to guide clients through every phase of this evolving landscape:

1. Refund and Recovery Claims

We can help businesses file refund claims for improperly collected tariffs, ensuring compliance with all federal laws, regulations and deadlines. Given the potential magnitude of these claims, early preparation will be essential.

2. Class-Action Litigation

Multiple class-action suits have already been initiated by affected importers. Our team can represent clients in pursuing or defending against large-scale actions, leveraging our experience in complex tax recovery disputes.

3. Trade Strategy and Compliance

We advise on post-ruling compliance and restructuring of trade operations, including supply chain adjustments, tariff classification and risk mitigation strategies in anticipation of possible new trade policies.

4. Negotiation and Settlement

In past disputes—such as the U.S.-Canada softwood lumber case—affected businesses recovered funds through negotiated settlements. Our attorneys are experienced in handling these types of negotiations and settlement fund distributions.

5. Managing Economic Uncertainty

A ruling of this magnitude may reshape trade dynamics and global sourcing decisions. We work with clients to model potential outcomes and develop proactive strategies to maintain business stability.

What Can Companies Do Now?

With tariff uncertainty continuing to impact global trade, companies should take proactive steps to mitigate risk and identify potential recovery opportunities. Companies that act early will be best positioned to protect their rights and maximize potential recovery.

First, file protective protests where applicable to preserve rights for future refunds. Next, audit customs entries and tariff exposure to identify duties paid pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ensure accuracy of records and uncover areas of overpayment or compliance gaps. Engaging experienced trade counsel to model refund scenarios can help quantify potential financial benefits and guide strategic decisions.

Beyond legal measures, it’s critical to coordinate with tax and supply chain teams to align tariff strategies with broader operational and financial planning. Finally, monitor regulatory developments and prepare for alternative enforcement mechanisms, as shifts in trade policy or enforcement priorities can create new obligations—or opportunities—for businesses. Acting now positions companies to reduce costs, maintain compliance and stay agile in a rapidly changing trade environment.

How Can Manatt Help?

Manatt’s interdisciplinary team of tariff recovery specialists can help you navigate through these unchartered waters to preserve your rights and recover tariff assessments that are determined to be unlawful and unconstitutional.