Estimated Financial Effects of Expanding Oregon's Medicaid Program under the Affordable Care Act (2014-2020)

Prepared for The Oregon Health Authority

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) calls for states to expand Medicaid to low income adults and provides federal funds to cover 100 percent of the costs of these "newly eligibles" from 2014 through 2016. The federal matching rate will then decrease over the next four years to 90 percent in 2020. The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in June 2012 did not change the Medicaid expansion provisions, but it effectively made expansion optional for states.

Manatt Health Solutions, The State Health Access Data Assistance Center and Oregon Health Sciences University's Center for Health Systems Effectiveness collaborated to produce a report to help inform Oregon policymakers as they consider the decision whether to expand Medicaid. The report examines the following issues:

  • Enrollment effects of the expansion and the associated costs of this new enrollment;
  • Estimated savings to Oregon's budget as a result of the coverage expansion; and
  • The impact of new federal spending on employment and tax revenue.

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